| There has been a shift in the risk of home price | | | | decline in the future, according to Mark F. Milner, |
| reductions in the U.S. towards Florida and California | | | | PMI's Chief Risk Officer. Still with all these going |
| and some areas of the southwest, according to | | | | ons, it is not a bad time to buy a home as a long |
| the PMI Mortgage Insurance Co.'s Summer 2007 | | | | term investment as long as buyers pick their |
| U.S. Market Risk Index. The index ranks the 50 | | | | mortgage package with care and have realistic |
| largest metropolitan statistical areas in the U.S. | | | | expectations of their properties appreciation. |
| according to the risk of home price reduction in | | | | The following are the top 15 metro areas that are |
| the next two years. | | | | likely to experience home price declines in the |
| On an average, the 50 MSAs scored 346, which | | | | next two years, with their group ranks at the |
| is 34.6 % possibility that home prices will reduce in | | | | front, and scores at the end. |
| the next two years. The PMI risk index model has | | | | 1 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA - 652 |
| been updated this year with the inclusion of the | | | | 1 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ - 646 |
| recent price volatility in the market. Also this | | | | 1 Las Vegas-Paradise, NV - 614 |
| year's index includes risk ranking where in MSAs | | | | 1 West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach, |
| with consistent characteristics are grouped under | | | | FL - 607 |
| the same rank. Thus we have Riverside, CA, | | | | 2 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA - 586 |
| Phoenix, AZ, Las Vegas, NV, and West Palm | | | | 2 Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, CA - 577 |
| Beach, FL group ranked on the top of the index | | | | 2 Oakland-Fremont-Hayward, CA - 572 |
| having about 60 % chance of home price | | | | 2 Orlando-Kissimmee, FL - 563 |
| reductions in the next two years. Five MSAs in | | | | 2 Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, CA - 560 |
| California - Los Angeles, Santa Ana, Oakland, | | | | 2 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA - 555 |
| Sacramento and San Diego in California, and four | | | | 2 Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield |
| in Florida - Orlando, Fort Lauderdale, Miami and | | | | Beach, FL - 542 |
| Tampa, feature among the top 11 that face a | | | | 2 Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL - 524 |
| home price decline of more than 50 %. | | | | 2 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL - 506 |
| Home price appreciation rates have slowed in | | | | 2 Boston-Quincy, MA - 501 |
| almost all the 50 largest MSAs. The number of | | | | 2 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MC - |
| MSAs that saw a home appreciation in the double | | | | 500 |
| digits in the first quarter of 2007 has declined to | | | | Be sure to contact a local Realtor if you are |
| five, way below last year's 26. | | | | thinking about buying or selling a home, condo, or |
| Markets which have had a history of price | | | | any other real estate. |
| volatility are more likely to experience home price | | | | |